Analysis
For the first time since the winter of 2001, the average heating oil price in Nebraska was not the lowest in the region and in the nation this week. The price in Kentucky was one penny lower than Nebraska's price at $2.16 per gallon.
On January 1, 2007, the average residential heating oil price had decreased two cents from last week to $2.17 per gallon (see the table at the end of this report). The graph below shows the spread in prices from month to month and from this year compared to previous years. This week's average price was 17 cents (or eight percent) higher than the price at this time last year.
Other states in the Midwest Region had higher prices ranging from $2.16 to $2.36 with the region averaging $2.30 per gallon. States near Nebraska, such as Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, had prices of $2.29, $2.34, and $2.36, respectively.
Wholesale prices had fallen nearly seven cents per gallon this week, and the rack-to-retail margin increased to 25 cents.
For the week ending December 29, the Midwest distillate inventory level was below the normal range for this time of year at 3.3 million barrels.
Notes: The annual report for the 2005-2006 winter season is available. An archive houses annual reports from previous years.
A general rule of thumb: A dollar increase in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price will result in a 2.5-cent increase in the price of heating oil. Likewise, a dollar decrease in the WTI crude oil price will result in a 2.5-cent decrease in the price of heating oil.
Heating Season
The Nebraska Energy Office has participated in the State Heating Oil and Propane Program for six years. During the heating season (October to March), the staff contact companies each week who supply heating oil to Nebraska, collect Monday's retail price, and submit the data to the Energy Information Administration. The Energy Information Administration calculates the average price shown in the table below.
In the Midwest Region, Nebraska's average residential heating oil price was the lowest price each week during the heating seasons of the five years from 2001/2002 to 2005/2006. The Energy Information Administration theorized that this was due to minimal transportation costs. Another reason would be the number of participating states. Since state participation in the program is voluntary, heating oil prices were not surveyed in each state in the Midwest Region. Kansas and Oklahoma might also have had low prices--possibly lower than Nebraska's because the two states are closer to heating oil sources.
Off Season
During the off season (April through September), the Nebraska Energy Office staff continue to contact the same suppliers who were contacted during the heating season. Staff contact suppliers once a month instead of once a week since the price of heating oil is usually not as volatile during the off season. The Nebraska Energy Office staff calculate the average price, shown in the table below, from the suppliers' retail prices on the first Monday of the month.
State Heating Oil and Propane Program
The Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy, conducts the State Heating Oil and Propane Program from October to March--the heating season--each year. The Energy Information Administration collects prices for the program each week from participating states and calculates a state average price, a regional average price, and a national average price which can be seen in the report Residential Heating Oil Prices by Region and State.
Midwest Region
For statistical purposes, the Energy Information Administration defines the Midwest region to include the states of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.
Price Explanation
The prices represent average residential home heating charge prices for home delivery of No. 2 heating oil, excluding taxes and cash discounts.