Gasoline and Diesel Price Monitor
October 8, 2019
The Energy Information Administration (EIA)
forecasts total U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million barrels per
day in 2019, up 1.3 million barrels per day from 2018, and 13.2 million barrels per day in 2020, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2019.
North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel in September 2019, up by $4 per barrel from the average in August 2019, and down $16 per barrel from the September 2018 price. Brent crude is expected to average $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $57 per barrel by the second quarter in 2020.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $56.26 per
barrel in 2019 and $54.43 per barrel in 2020.
Gasoline and Diesel Prices
U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.59 per gallon in September 2019, down 3 cents per gallon from August, 2019, and down 25 cents per gallon from the average in September of last year. EIA expects
regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.56 per gallon in 2019 and $2.57 per
gallon in 2020.
The peak price of $4.10 per gallon for gasoline in Nebraska was reached on July
On-highway diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.02 per gallon in August 2019, up one cent per gallon from August 2019, and down 24 cents per gallon from the average in September of last year. According to EIA, the price is forecast to average $3.05 in 2019 and $3.03 in 2020.
The peak price of $4.77 per gallon for diesel in Nebraska was reached on July 17,
Because taxes and retail distribution costs are generally stable, movements in
gasoline and diesel prices are driven primarily by changes in crude oil prices
and wholesale margins. Crude oil prices that differ from the forecast would be
reflected in the price of motor fuels. Each dollar per barrel of sustained
change in crude oil prices relative to the forecast translates into approximately
a 2.4 cent-per-gallon change in product prices.