Gasoline and Diesel Price Monitor
U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.7 million barrels per day in July,
down by 0.3 million barrels per day from the June level. Declines were mostly
in the Federal Gulf of Mexico where operators shut platforms for several days
in mid-July because of Hurricane Barry. Those declines were partially offset by
the Lower 48 States onshore region production. The Energy Information Administration
(EIA) forecasts total U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million barrels
per day in 2019 and 13.3 million barrels per day in 2020, both of which would be
North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64 per barrel in July 2019,
almost unchanged from the average in June 2019, but $10 per barrel lower than
the price in July of last year. Brent crude is expected to average $64 per barrel
in the second half of 2019 and $65 per barrel in 2020. Stable crude oil prices
is the result of EIA's expectations of a relatively balanced global oil market.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $57.87 per
barrel in 2019 and $59.50 per barrel in 2020.
Gasoline and Diesel Prices
U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.74 per gallon
in July 2019, up two cents per gallon from June, 2019, but 11 cents per gallon
lower than the average in July of last year. EIA expects monthly average gasoline
have peaked for the year in May at an average of $2.86 per gallon. EIA expects
regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.65 per gallon in 2019 and $2.71 per
gallon in 2020.
The peak price of $4.10 per gallon for gasoline in Nebraska was reached on July
On-highway diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.05 per gallon in July 2019, down
four cents per gallon from June, 2019, and, down 18 cents per gallon from the average
in July of last year. According to EIA, the price is forecast to average $3.00 in
The peak price of $4.77 per gallon for diesel in Nebraska was reached on July 17,
Because taxes and retail distribution costs are generally stable, movements in
gasoline and diesel prices are driven primarily by changes in crude oil prices
and wholesale margins. Crude oil prices that differ from the forecast would be
reflected in the price of motor fuels. Each dollar per barrel of sustained
change in crude oil prices relative to the forecast translates into approximately
a 2.4 cent-per-gallon change in product prices.